Real Estate 2026: A Clearer, More Rational Market Full of Opportunities

Harald StarkePresident, Riviera Keys

A Real Estate Market Entering a Phase of Maturity

The French real estate market – and particularly the French Riviera – has gone through a period of significant turbulence over the past five to six years. The health crisis, inflation and the rapid rise in interest rates have profoundly reshaped market dynamics.

In 2026, the market is entering a new phase: less speculative, more rational and, above all, more transparent.

National data point to an overall stabilisation in prices, with strong regional disparities. While certain areas, such as Paris, have experienced more noticeable short-term adjustments, the long-term trend remains positive. Nationwide, prices are still up by around +25% over the past 10 years, confirming the structural resilience of real estate as an asset class.

National Overview: Stabilisation and a Gradual Return of Buyers

After the historic post-Covid peak in transactions, sales volumes declined sharply due to higher interest rates. Since 2024–2025, however, figures show a gradual recovery, signalling a market that is rebalancing.

This evolution comes with profound changes:

• buyers are more cautious and better informed
• sellers are more attuned to their specific local micro-markets
• negotiations are healthier, based on the true quality of the properties

The era of urgency has given way to one of analysis and reflection.

Focus on the Riviera: A Confirmed Safe-Haven Market

On the French Riviera, fundamentals remain particularly strong. The data speak for themselves: Nice, Cannes, Antibes and Saint-Raphaël have recorded significant price growth over the past decade, with premium areas showing notable resilience.

A zone-by-zone analysis is essential. Seafront locations, rare addresses and high-quality properties continue to outperform city-wide averages.

This market is supported by:

• sustained international demand, particularly from Northern Europe
• ongoing appeal for second homes and long-term wealth investment
• structurally limited supply in the most sought-after areas

For a Franco-Scandinavian clientele, the Riviera remains both an emotional and a rational choice, combining lifestyle, climate, security and long-term value preservation.

2026: The Year of Thoughtful Real Estate Projects

One factor has now become central: quality and energy performance.

The Energy Performance Certificate (DPE) has become a true value driver:

• well-rated properties sell faster and at higher prices
• energy-inefficient homes are subject to price discounts and tougher negotiations

Two comparable properties in the same neighbourhood can now show significant price differences solely based on their energy rating.

Local observations indicate, as a guideline, the following average impacts:

• Energy rating A–B: +10% to +25% (in some cases, even higher for premium properties in Cannes)
• Energy rating C–D: 0% to +5% (market reference)
• Energy rating E: –5% to –10% (often a point for negotiation)
• Energy rating F–G: –15% to –30% (longer time on market and fewer potential buyers)

Who Are Today’s Buyers?

Buyer profiles on the Riviera confirm a market that is both broad and selective.

We observe:

• a strong share of local and regional buyers, highly sensitive to micro-location pricing
• Paris-based and international buyers, with higher expectations regarding quality, presentation and energy efficiency

Two age groups dominate:

• buyers aged 30–49, focused on functionality, remote-working possibilities and cost transparency
• buyers aged 60 and above, prioritising comfort, ease of use and a long-term patrimonial vision

In both cases, purchasing decisions are more rational, better documented and more selective than in the past.

Our Market Outlook for 2026

In this more mature environment, professional guidance is more important than ever.
Successfully completing a real estate project on the Riviera requires:

• deep local expertise
• precise micro-market analysis
• a strategy aligned with buyer expectations
• clear, transparent and professional communication

This is precisely where the value of a Franco-Scandinavian agency lies: bridging cultures, expectations and market realities.

Conclusion

The year 2026 opens with a real estate market that is more balanced, more transparent and rich in opportunities for both buyers and sellers — provided they are properly advised.

At RivieraKeys, we approach this new year with measured optimism, high standards and a strong sense of responsibility, serving sustainable and well-thought-out property projects.

Sources :
DVF (French Land Registry – data.gouv.fr) · FNAIM · IGEDD · INSEE (DGFiP and notarial databases).Synthesis, analysis and interpretation: Riviera Keys.

Energy performance data are based on the current regulatory framework, local transaction observations and market practice.